Factors affecting the domestic soybean market
(1) policy factors Northeast State control policies
soybean price support. Since last autumn on the market, the Chinese Government to stabilize the grain market prices, to protect the interests of grain growers, soybean producing areas in the northeast of policy acquisition start autumn. At the end of two consecutive basic purchasing and storage, the state four ministries on January 12 this year, jointly announced the third batch of three million tons purchasing and storage of Northeast soybean program, acquisition implementation period at the end of April 2009, with the former two groups have issued The acquisition, temporary storage of soybean country in the northeast has reached 6 million tons total acquisition plan, accounting for about 36.4% of domestic soybean production. The main producing province of Heilongjiang Province, which plan purchasing and storage 4.53 million tons, accounting for more than 70% of soybean production in the province. This greatly over the years, purchasing and storage of rare intensity, prop acquisition policy support soybean producing areas of Northeast market trends strong, significant effect on the soybean price support.
(B) supply and demand factors Serious inverted domestic soybean prices led to increase in China’s soybean imports. As the Chicago Mercantile Exchange dropped soybean and strong domestic soybean prices, coupled with the international crude oil prices drop due to other causes of sea freight imports soybean soybean prices lower than domestic prices, resulting in more serious domestic soybean prices upside down . In general, the low rate of domestic soybean oil, water high, per ton of soybean imports to be lower than the 200 or so. However, national policy has led to the temporary storage of domestic soybean prices strong in soybean imports. 1 At the end of the transaction value of imports in the 3550-3650 soybean port, the State Reserve 3700 yuan / ton highlights the import price of soybean purchasing and storage cost advantage. From late February, the international soybean market prices in the new round of decline in access, at the end of the port soybean imports were sold only 3,400 yuan, soybean price advantage gone, the domestic soybean processing companies turned to purchasing imported soybeans, soybean imports again Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China in particular, the severe impact of soybean processing enterprises. According to customs statistics, in January China imported 3.03 million tons of soybean, soybean imports 3.26 million tons in February 1-February imported a total of 6.29 million tons, representing an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year.
Soybean oil , Soybean meal and seasonal factors that increase the consumer price pullback pressure. Spring Festival, the domestic soybean meal spot prices continue to drop, demand is not a major driving force for soybean meal prices. After the Spring Festival peak before the slaughter, the livestock greatly reduced, so that greatly reduced consumer demand, soybean meal, poultry Feed Very optimistic about the situation demands. Even excluding seasonal factors, most enterprises are a drop in feed sales. Meanwhile, the global face of financial crisis, declining demand, as the birds Meat Exporting countries, China blocked exports of livestock and poultry, resulting in post-holiday meal consumption is not growing rapidly. In addition, sustained a severe drought in northern breeding industry also pose a threat. The different parts of the country and the extent of disease, leading to further reduce stock levels, parts of the poultry breeding stock into a more normal level 2-3 too few, breeding herds caused by inadequate levels of reduced feed consumption. Has been since February, the domestic situation in most poor feed business sales, feed sales expected in February compared with January down to 30%. Soybean oil consumption, seasonal view from the residents through the concentrated stocking before the Spring Festival will be followed by a relatively long period of time to meet the cost of living, then it is converted by the consumer when the peak to the off-season, soybean oil demand continued to decline.
(Iii) international market factors
Impact of international crude oil prices continued downturn in the pace of soybeans rose. Worldwide economic recession due to falling demand for crude oil, crude oil prices continue to 40 dollars / barrel stand low. Weaker crude oil prices, decline of sea freight, import of soybean costs. The first quarter of this year continued downturn trend freight. International sea freight from the May 2008 high of 158 U.S. dollars / ton continuous fall, to 12 at the end of the U.S. Gulf to the port of China was once dry bulk freight rates fell to 21 dollars, shipping ports in South America to China fell to 23 U.S. dollars, sea freight to China the proportion of the cost of imported soybeans from the peak of 1 / 3 down to below 1 / 10, dramatically reducing the cost of imported soybeans to Hong Kong. China’s imports of soybeans this year are still at a high level, low shipping cost shocks undoubtedly restricted the import price of soybeans up space. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices running low, so the concept of bio-fuels speculation soybean oil lost ground. The strong dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities all prices are relatively weak.