“A foregone conclusion this year’s corn crop in Northeast in 2009, is most conducive to doing in recent years, more than one year; and technology shape quite well. Now, in the fourth quarter rally in corn has not tried.” Part of the “Third Session of the International Corn Industry Conference “Participants who reported to China Securities, told reporters.
From Dalian corn futures trend can be seen, in August the year of record breaking high price, Aug. 31 to close at the highest point of the first 8 months of 1770 yuan / ton. Meanwhile, the August hands of corn futures traded 7.738 million, compared with 78% surge in July, 2009 accounted for 32% of turnover from January to August.
Northeast lay the long bull pattern cut
According to the recent organization of the Northeast Corn DCE delegation learned that last year’s bumper harvest of maize in Jilin Province, the total output of 2,100 tons, but is expected to cut production this year, more than three percent, that rate cut will be 700 tons. Matsubara area where the most serious, or should be 30% -40% in some areas may reach 50%.
In addition, the cut is expected to greatly improve psychology farmers reluctant sellers. Last year, the Northeast States producing 40 million tons of jade Mito City, start the acquisition program, the corn price in Jilin Province 1500 yuan / ton. The policy level this year, has repeatedly said it will continue to increase purchasing price of grain, so farmers look forward to this year’s corn prices higher. Bohai futures analysis, since 2004, corn market has staged several times in the harvest-season rally, which peasants reluctant sellers, is the major factor. “Last year, start producing areas in the northeast state purchasing and storage plan 40 million tons this year, state leaders have repeatedly said they would continue to raise grain purchasing prices, which farmers in this year’s corn prices even higher expectations.” The agency believes that producing place The drought has aggravated the peasants of reluctant sellers, psychology, early in the new grain farmers reluctant sellers listed inevitable.
Moreover, the last state purchasing and storage led to the basic out of the market traders, producing this year’s drought is obvious to all maize growing areas in Northeast late cut corn on the trend of the market is more optimistic, many traders said the market will not miss the opportunity to actively involved in the acquisition. Many participants believe that farmers reluctant sellers, and the acquisition of companies in the market actively acquired, if countries continue to start the acquisition, production areas may form a “Qiangliang” situation, will promote rapid increases in corn prices.
COFCO Assistant Yue Guojun, president told reporters at the meeting space, the national maize production this year because of drought will be over 160,000,000 tons in 2008 to reduce 1,200 tons, or 7.5%.
Assembly sponsor of the Galaxy futures also said pork prices continued to rise, including corn, including positive Feed Demand recovery. This year the price of pork went through the process of bottoming out: from the beginning continued to decline until mid-June, breeding a loss of confidence has been hit. To stabilize the market, boosting prices, the National Development and Reform Commission began to implement plans for purchasing and stockpiling of live pigs. Good policy to promote pork prices began to rebound, will remain strong until the Double before, feed corn prices will be boosted.
Short-term adjustment to prevent high Also remind many market participants, the current domestic corn prices have risen to record highs, the risk of late need to pay attention to the callback. On the one hand, because the state is still very adequate control of inventory, price regulation and control is still the main factor dominating the market, recently has begun to increase the amount put in the temporary storage of maize, while meat and eggs for the recent price increases, Development and Reform Committee urged all localities to earnestly strengthen the supervision of residents in the prices of daily necessities, but also can be seen as a policy signal; the other hand, enter the new corn are all listed in September, the impact on the market can not be ignored. Deputy General Manager Ma Fakai
Huixin futures to China Securities Journal, told reporters that so far, the State Reserve corn auction has been conducted nine times, plans to auction 2,102.23 tons, total volume was 1,090.25 tons, turnover rate was 51.86 % (due to inter-provincial transfer library auction volume and small volume is not included in statistics). In addition, the state has a certain scale in Northeast China corn processing enterprise orientation Sell 5.8 million tons of corn reservoir is state, and to provide a subsidy, which to some extent alleviate the pressure on production, but also increased the market supply. September 15 inter-provincial transfer state bank of corn to sell, but the transaction is not satisfactory, markets must wait and see mood. State Reserve is the main reason the market is difficult to accept the auction price. Therefore, national policies in the cash market corn in large part about the corn prices.