Space Tourism: Will it go far or fizzle out?
By Philip A. Janquart
There are six spaceports in the United States alone and others around the globe. Spaceport America, located at White Sands, New Mexico, is the worlds first commercial spaceport, Sir Richard Bransons Virgin Galactic the worlds first self-proclaimed spaceline and the facilitys anchor tenant.
Bigelow Aerospace, a Nevada-based aerospace engineering company, recently approached Canada about building a facility there. When it comes to space tourism, it turns out there are several companies in varying degrees of planning and development of spaceships and spaceports. Other companies are selling and marketing tickets to go to space.
I think the future of space tourism is going to depend on a lot of different factors, and how successful these companies are at launching things, said Douglas Messier, owner of the blogsite Parabolicarc.com.
Messiers site focuses on space commercialization and tourism. Discussion topics also include things like hypersonic developments, human spaceflight and robotic exploration. Blogging and writing spec scripts for the series Star Trek doesnt make him an expert on anything, but his masters degree in science, technology and public policy from The George Washington University just might. He studied at the universitys Space Policy Institute and graduated from the affiliated International Space University. (He also holds a bachelors in journalism from Rider University.) Also an affiliate of the Aerospace Corporation, the Institute is a place where scholars, policy analysts, practitioners and students come together to study and evaluate the future of space.
There are billions of dollars being poured into the space tourism industry, but the question that seems to persist is whether space tourism is for real. Messier suggests it may be, as long as certain components fall into place. The biggest is money and right now companies like Virgin Galactic and XCOR Aerospace are the current frontrunners in the effort to send citizen astronauts into space.
The two companies, especially Bransons Virgin Galactic, are fueled by lifelong visions and a belief there is both the money and the interest to fuel the industry. Then there is what could be called the X factor, a type of manifest destiny-based momentum that is carrying forward our natural compulsion as humans to gravitate beyond what we already know. That gravitation has now become a race.
Companies like Virgin Galactic, XCOR Aerospace, Blue Origin Aerospace, Armadillo Aerospace, Excalibur Almaraz, Bigelow Aerospace and, just recently, Boeing are all waist deep in a mini space race, each eagerly positioning themselves to become the first company to begin sending spaceships filled with private tourists on suborbital and, eventually, orbital flights.
Virgin Galactic seems best positioned in terms of suborbital flights, having performed several successful test flights of its SpaceShip Two.
Virgin has a lot of money and prestige behind it, Messier told NewSpace Magazine. They are, kind of, the Goliath of the industry right now. They just completed another test flight. Itll be interesting to see how fast they can move with the aggressive schedule they have. One question is their engine. There hasnt been a whole lot of testing.
Which brings up an entirely new subject safety.
But, if Virgin Galactic is Goliath, XCOR is the David of the story.
They are a small, scrappy company, said Messier. XCOR is the expert at engines and I think they have a workable design, but funding is their issue. They are looking at initial test flights by end of year, 2011. There seems to be a lot of people interested in doing this (visiting space). The issue will be how good are the flights, reliability and a lot of other factors. But I think there is a market. Companies are also looking to the suborbital experiment market as part of their revenue stream
There is also a sizable market developing for orbital flights. The Russians have been sending the very wealthy to the ISS (International Space Station) for years.
It is a very interesting market, said Messier, a communications expert who has spent the last 10 years involved in entrepreneurial start-ups. The price has gone up to about $ 40 million for a 10-day to two-week mission. The Russians have had a monopoly, so the prices havent gone down.
That will change once private companies catch up, finding viable, safe and cost-effective avenues for putting paying customers into orbit. One of those avenues includes buying technology from the Russians themselves. At least one company, Excalibur Almaraz, has already done that, according to former employee and Boise State University Professor Clay Morgan who says the company intends to eventually send tourists around the moon and back.
In some ways, space tourism has no choice but to succeed and prosper, especially considering the fact the current Presidential administration has nixed NASAs plans to return to the moon. NASA is now relying on the private sector to continue development efforts from the Earth to the moon while it tries to adjust to a new mission mandate.
Its a complicated issue. The previous vision of NASA was focused on the moon and it may not have been very realistic in its implementation and funding, Messier said, referring to NASAs now cancelled Constellation program. The vehicles they were building were too expensive, werent going to get us to the moon very fast and there would be so much money going into a lunar base, we wouldnt have enough money left to do anything with it. Hence, the private space industry.
With the space tourism industry about to take off, literally, the economic effects, according to Messier, could be significant, with thousands of new jobs and careers made available to the public.
The impact of building space stations and rockets could have a major impact on things, he said. Bigalow has talked about 20 or more flights per year to sustain its space stations.
But will the price for a trip stay the same, or will it drop? Messier says prices should fall. Ticket prices between companies vary, even now, roughly 17 months before Virgin Galactic launches its first flight. Virgin is selling tickets for $ 200,000 and XCOR is about $ 95,000, with a different flight model. Armadillo is selling its seats at about $ 102,000.
But what is it about space that causes people to throw down such cold, hard cash for a few minutes above the Earth? Does being in space change the average persons perspective on what it means to be a human on this planet? Some say it does, but Messier, who has never been to space, isnt sure.
I dont really know. That will be interesting, he said. Virgin has made the argument that by getting people up there, it will change our view on how fragile the earth is and things like that. And, its probably true. Its going to make people put their money into either saving the rain forest or going back.
Decades of waiting
Messier is part of a growing number of people keeping a close eye on an industry that was all but unfathomable to most people some 40 years ago, save for a relatively small group that possessed enough vision to see past the present and into the future of commercial space flight.
Many of those were youth caught in the mesmerizing current of wonder and excitement generated by the space race of the 1960s. They have been quietly biding their time, waiting for their chance to climb aboard a spaceship bound for the outer reaches of Earths atmosphere.
The wait ended for a handful of hopefuls, beginning in 2001, when Dennis Tito hitched a ride with the Russians to the International Space Station at a cost of $ 20 million. A few more tourists followed in Titos footsteps over roughly a 10-year period.
But things have changed: the fact that millions of dollars are being spent on constructing spaceports all over the world is a very tangible sign this space tourism thing truly is for real.
Going to space is not cheap and if the money that is being poured into space tourism is any indication of the industrys future, the idea of people traveling to space will one day be as common as an overseas flight to Paris.
Log on to www.newspacemagazine.com for more on space tourism and travel.